In the poll, commissioned by WGRZ and The Buffalo News, Brown leads Tolbert by a margin of 63-30, up slightly from a mid-August poll which showed his lead at 61-32.
Following is commentary and analysis from Siena pollster Steven Grennberg from Siena.edu:
Buffalo Mayor Seeking Third Term has Two-to-One Lead Over Challenger
“As he seeks his third term as mayor, Byron Brown is maintaining a two-to-one lead over Bernie Tolbert
heading into the Democratic primary,” Greenberg said. “Brown still holds a double-digit lead – garnering a
majority of the support – among white voters, and he continues to have overwhelming support among black
voters. He has more than 60 percent support among men and women, as well as younger and older voters.”
Brown has a 70-27 percent favorability rating, up significantly from 58-37 percent in August. Tolbert, who
has become more known to likely primary voters has a 46-31 percent favorability rating, with 23 percent not
having an opinion of him. It was 39-18 percent last month, with 44 percent having no opinion.
“Brown is better known and viewed more favorably than his challenger. His job performance rating is very
strong with 63 percent of likely voters saying he’s doing an excellent or good job as mayor, compared to 36
percent saying he’s doing only a fair or poor jobs, up considerably from 53-47 percent last month,” Greenberg
said. “More than 60 percent of voters are prepared to re-elect the Mayor, while only one-third say they would
prefer ‘someone else.’ And more than three-quarters of voters say they are satisfied with the candidates.
“By an overwhelming 78-16 percent, voters say Buffalo is headed on the right track,” Greenberg said. “Likely
Democratic primary voters think the city is headed on the right track, view Brown very favorably, think he’s
doing a positive job as mayor, and by a 90-6 percent margin think the incumbent is going to win the primary.
It’s hard to see how 90 percent can be wrong.”