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The survey shows Grisanti ahead of Democrat Michael Amodeo by a 47-23 percent margin, with a 4.7 percent margin of error.
Grisanti has been a target of several Conservative groups upset with his vote as one of the few Republicans to endorse gay marriage. Democratic groups, eager to flip the state senate's 33-29 Republican Majority.
READ THE ENTIRE SIENA POLL HERE | Or the summary from Siena Below
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"In the 60th SD, Republican Senator Mark Grisanti has the support of 47 percent of likely voters, compared to Democrat Michael Amodeo’s 23 percent, Conservative Party candidate Charles Swanick’s 17 percent, and six percent for Gregory Davis on the Working Families Party line.
“In Erie County, Democrats are hoping to unseat a freshman Republican – one of four Republicans to vote for last year’s same sex marriage law. With a crowded field of candidates splitting the anti-Grisanti vote, the incumbent has a 24-point lead over his nearest competitor, Amodeo, the Democrat, who only leads the Conservative candidate by six points,” Siena pollster Steve Greenberg said.
Grisanti has the support of 47 percent of likely voters, including 61 percent of Republicans, 59 percent of independents and 34 percent of Democrats. Democrat Amodeo, with 23 percent support overall, only leads Grisanti among Democrats by four points. Swanick, on the Conservative line, is supported by 17 percent of voters, including double digits from every party. Grisanti leads big with women, bigger with men and by nearly identical large margins among voters he currently represents and voters new to the redrawn district.
Grisanti has a 59-30 percent favorability rating, and is viewed favorably by a majority of voters in all parties. Amodeo, unknown to more than half of voters, has a favorability rating of 25-18 percent, while Swanick is viewed unfavorably by more voters than view him favorably. By a 64-26 percent margin voters view the State Senate unfavorably, and are closely divided on control of the Senate, siding with Democrats 48-44 percent.
Obama leads Romney by 14-points, 54-40 percent, in this district with a 19-point Democratic enrollment edge. Independents are closely divided, favoring Obama 47-43 percent.
By large margins, voters say Grisanti will do a better job on all issues. Nearly half of voters say Grisanti’s vote on same sex marriage has no effect on their support, while slightly more than one-quarter say it makes them more likely to vote for him, and one-quarter say it makes them less likely to vote for Grisanti.
“If Grisanti was opposed by a single candidate, this race might be more interesting since his support falls below 50 percent. However, with Amodeo splitting the votes of those opposed to Grisanti, the incumbent appears to be in a commanding position. He is well known and widely liked, and he’s seen as much better on all the issues. It’s going to take an awful lot to change the dynamic of this race in four weeks,” Greenberg said.
“In four State Senate races Siena has polled, advantage Republicans. Two Democratic seats are too close to call, while one Republican seat appears safe and another has an eight-point Republican lead,” Greenberg said.
