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Worst Case: A Month's Worth of Rain in A Few Days



If Hurricane Sandy heads inland up the East coast, what's in store in Western New York?

"The worst case scenario - and I think we are leaning toward that right now-- is an extended period of strong wind and heavy rain beginning on Monday and continuing at least into Tuesday.  

"We are talking about a sustained period of winds gusting thirty to sixty miles an hour, and also the potential for a month or so worth of rain in a couple of days."   

-- John Gresiak,   AccuWeather meteorologist.


Here's the latest Hazardous Weather Outlook from the National Weather Service: 

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN.... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: HURRICANE SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES...ITS INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY LEAD TO A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE EAST COAST. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TURN BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION OR DELMARVA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREAT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT BOTH THE TRACK OF THIS COMPLEX STORM AND TIMING OF LANDFALL. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL HAZARDS HERE IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE LOW CONFIDENCE BUT HIGH IMPACT SCENARIO COULD INCLUDE re> THE POTENTIAL FOR PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK FOR STRONG WINDS. THE RISK FOR HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK REMAINS THOUGH THE CONCERN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED.


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AccuWeather meteorologist John Gresiak
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New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has activated the state's emergency system  to monitor Hurricane Sandy as it works its way north. Widespread power outages are possible.

Cuomo is asking New Yorkers to monitor their TVs and radios for weather alerts.

He's also urging people to prepare storm kits. They include non-perishable food, water, cash, filled prescriptions, a battery-powered or hand-crank radio, first aid kit, flashlights and extra batteries.

Sandy pounds Bahamas after killing 21 in Caribbean  
Hurricane Sandy raged through the Bahamas early Friday after leaving 21 people dead across the Caribbean, following a path that could see it blend with a winter storm and reach the U.S. East Coast as a super-storm next week.
Cuban state media say 11 deaths in Hurricane Sandy  
Cuban state media have announced 11 deaths from Hurricane Sandy, including a 4-month-old boy who was crushed when his home collapsed.
Soggy Jamaica cleaning up after Hurricane Sandy  
Work crews in soaked Jamaica cleared debris and downed power lines left in Hurricane Sandy's wake while trying to restore electricity to more than half of the Caribbean country Thursday.
US base in Guantanamo cleans up after Sandy  
Crews restored downed power lines and cleared debris at the U.S. Navy base at Guantanamo Bay on Thursday, following a brush with Hurricane Sandy.
Eastern utilities brace for expected super storm  
Utilities and governments along the East Coast are working to head off long-term power failures as forecasters predict a major storm to hit a region already skittish after foul weather in recent months that plunged residents into darkness for weeks.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The pre-Halloween hybrid weather monster that federal forecasters call "Frankenstorm" is looking more ominous by the hour for the East Coast, and utilities and local governments are getting ready.

Meteorologists expect a natural horror show of high wind, heavy rain, extreme tides and maybe snow to the west beginning early Sunday, peaking with the arrival of Hurricane Sandy on Tuesday and lingering past Halloween on Wednesday.

With a rare mix of three big merging weather systems over a densely populated region, experts predict at least $1 billion in damage.

The stage is set as Hurricane Sandy, having blown through Haiti and Cuba, continues to barrel north. A wintry storm is chugging across the country from the west. And frigid air is streaming south from Canada.

And if they meet Tuesday morning around New York or New Jersey, as forecasters predict, they could create a big, wet mess that settles over the nation's most heavily populated corridor and reaches as far west as Ohio.

Utilities are lining up out-of-state work crews and canceling employees' days off to deal with expected power outages. From county disaster chiefs to the federal government, emergency officials are warning the public to be prepared. And President Barack Obama was briefed aboard Air Force One.

 

"It's looking like a very serious storm that could be historic," said Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the forecasting service Weather Underground. "Mother Nature is not saying, `Trick or treat.' It's just going to give tricks."

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecaster Jim Cisco, who coined the nickname Frankenstorm, said: "We don't have many modern precedents for what the models are suggesting."

Government forecasters said there is a 90 percent chance - up from 60 percent two days earlier - that the East will get pounded.

Coastal areas from Florida to Maine will feel some effects, but the storm is expected to vent the worst of its fury on New Jersey and the New York City area, which could see around 5 inches of rain and gale-force winds close to 40 mph. Eastern Ohio, southwestern Pennsylvania and western Virginia could get snow.

And the storm will take its time leaving. The weather may not start clearing in the mid-Atlantic until the day after Halloween and Nov. 2 in the upper Northeast, Cisco said.

"It's almost a weeklong, five-day, six-day event," he said from a NOAA forecast center in College Park, Md. "It's going to be a widespread, serious storm."

 


It is likely to hit during a full moon, when tides are near their highest, increasing the risk of coastal flooding. And because many trees still have their leaves, they are more likely to topple in the event of wind and snow, meaning there could be widespread power outages lasting to Election Day.



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