On The WBEN Liveline
Siena Pollster Steve Greenberg
"His numbers are still the envy of politicians everywhere," says Pollster Steve Greenberg, adding that there is a "three month mini-trend of seeing his numbers go down a little"
"I think there is no question that the gun legislation.. was a contributing factor. There is a minority- and that's the key word: there's a minority of voters across the state (and) a majority of voters in upstate New York who are passionately opposed to the new gun control law, and they are taking it out on Gov. Cuomo."
From Hardline (Sunday 10am-12noon)
Marist College Pollster Lee Miringoff
On Cuomo and Gun Control
Among other things, the law outlaws a broader array of military-style weapons, restricts ammunition magazines to seven rounds down from 10, and makes New York the first state to require background checks to buy bullets. Mental health professionals are now required to tell state authorities if a patient threatens to use a gun illegally.
VERBATIM from The Siena Research Institute
Here's the release announcing the latest poll
Cuomo’s Favorability Rating – Still Two-to-One Positive – Hits Lowest Level Since He’s Been Governor
Support for New Gun Law Remains Strong; Majority Oppose Repeal of the Law; Voters Divided on Whether Law Was Rushed Through
Voters: Increase Minimum Wage; Enact Public Campaign Financing and Gov’s Reproductive Health Act; Decriminalize Small Amounts of Pot
Loudonville, NY. Governor Andrew Cuomo continues to maintain a better than two-to-one favorability rating (64-30 percent), although it is down from 67-29 percent last month and 72-21 percent in December 2012, and is now at its lowest level since he’s been governor, according to a new Siena College Research Institute poll of New York voters released today. By a 61-35 percent margin (down from 65-30 percent last month), voters support the state’s new gun law, and by a 56-40 percent margin voters oppose repealing the law. Voters strongly support
increasing the minimum wage, creating a system of public campaign financing for the state, enacting the governor’s reproductive health act, and decriminalizing the public possession of up to 15 grams of marijuana.
“With a better than two-to-one favorability rating that would be the envy of most elected officials or politicians, Andrew Cuomo continues to be very popular with New York voters. However, for the third consecutive month, Cuomo has seen a small drop in his favorability rating, and is now viewed favorably by fewer voters than at any time since he’s been governor,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “Similarly, the governor’s job performance
rating and his ‘re-elect’ number have also fallen by high single digits over the last couple of months.”
Fifty-four percent of voters say Cuomo is doing an excellent or good job as governor and 44 percent say he’s doing only a fair or poor job (down from 58-41 percent last month and 60-38 percent in January and December). Currently, 54 percent of voters are prepared to re-elect Cuomo next year, compared to 37 percent who would prefer ‘someone else’ (down from 56-36 percent last month and 62-29 percent in December).
“Although the gun law has certainly created a stir across the state, particularly upstate, the majority of voters are with the governor on guns. And they are strongly with him on a number of other prominent issues,” Greenberg said. “So, is it the gun law creating this mini-trend of three consecutive months of lower poll numbers? Or is it, to some degree, that nearly half of voters see recent decisions by the governor as being politically motivated?”
“In a new Siena College Poll question, voters were asked if they thought the governor makes decisions based on what he thinks is best for New Yorkers or best for his political future. Voters are nearly evenly divided, with 49 percent saying what’s best for New Yorkers and 47 percent saying what’s best for his political future,” Greenberg said.
“Not surprisingly, Democrats strongly say he’s doing what’s best for the people, while Republicans stronglysay – and independent also agree – that Cuomo’s decisions are based more on his political ambitions.
“Interestingly, the small drop this month in Cuomo’s favorability, job performance and re-elect ratings can’t be blamed on Republicans. His ratings on all three questions are actually up with Republicans in March compared to February,” Greenberg said. “The fall this month is due to some slippage among Democrats and independents. He also slipped among New York City and upstate voters, while gaining a little ground with suburban voters.”
Voters Continue to Support New Gun Law; Do Not Want to See it Repealed
“More than six in ten voters support the new gun law, including three-quarters of Democrats, a majority of independents and more than two-thirds of downstaters, while slightly more than one-third of voters oppose the law, including a majority of Republicans and upstaters. Over the last month, upstate opposition has grown significantly, while Republican opposition decreased slightly,” Greenberg said. “A majority of voters, including two-thirds of Democrats and nearly two-thirds of downstaters, do not want the law repealed. However, 12 percent of the law’s supporters say they now want it repealed and nine percent of the opponents do not want it repealed.
“Voters are now virtually evenly divided on whether or not the law was ‘rushed through’ or was the ‘right thing to do.’ Forty-nine percent say it was passed quickly but was the right thing to do, down from 56 percent who felt that way last month, while 48 percent said it was rushed through without adequate consideration, up from last month’s 42 percent. With more time to consider what happened, some voters have become displeased with the process that led to the gun law’s passage,” Greenberg said.
Voters Strongly Support Minimum Wage Increase, Public Campaign Financing, ‘Stop & Frisk’ Reform
“More than three-quarters of voters support increasing the minimum wage in New York to $9.00 per hour, down slightly from when Siena asked the question at $8.50 and $8.75 per hour, with overwhelming support from Democrats and independents and majority support from Republicans,” Greenberg said. “Support for public campaign financing remains strong – 61-33 percent – with two-thirds of Democrats, 60 percent of independents
and a plurality of Republicans behind it.
“Roughly two-thirds of Democrats and independents favor what’s been called stop and frisk reform – making the possession of less than 15 grams of marijuana in public view a violation, rather than a misdemeanor – as do half of Republicans,” Greenberg said. “Overall, voters support it by a strong 63-34 percent margin.”
Overwhelming Support for Gov’s Reproductive Health Act; Two-thirds Call Themselves Pro-Choice
“By an overwhelming 80-16 percent margin, voters support the Governor’s reproductive health act, ‘aimed at protecting reproductive freedom for women, ensuring a woman’s right to make private health care decisions regarding pregnancy.’ At least two-thirds of voters from every party, region and demographic group support it, with the exception of self-identified conservatives who support it 64-29 percent,” Greenberg said.
“When asked to describe themselves as generally ‘pro-life’ or ‘pro-choice’ on the issue of abortion, 66 percent of New York voters describe themselves as pro-choice – including more than two-thirds of Democrats and independents and a majority of Republicans – compared to 27 percent who describe themselves as pro-life.”
Voters Views on Obama and the Direction of the Country Take Major Drop
“While still viewed favorably by a majority, President Obama’s favorability rating dropped significantly this month to 56-41 percent, down from 66-32 percent last month,” Greenberg said. “Voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction by a nearly two-to-one margin, with only 32 percent saying the country is on the right track and 60 percent saying it’s headed in the wrong direction, down from a near even 46-49 percent in January.”
Fracking and Casino Amendment Divide Voters Close to Evenly
“By a narrow 43-39 percent margin, voters oppose fracking moving forward, little changed from last month’s 40-40 percent tie. It is opposed by a plurality of Democrats, independents, New York City voters, and a nearmajority of upstaters. It’s supported by a strong majority of Republicans and a plurality of downstate suburban voters,” Greenberg said. “A narrow plurality of voters, 46-43 percent, supports a constitutional amendment to allow casinos in New York, down from 48-42 percent last month and 52 percent support in January and December. Geographically, New York City voters are most opposed and Upstate voters are most supportive.”
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This Siena College Poll was conducted March 3-7, 2013 by telephone calls to 803 New York State registered voters. It has an overall margin of error of + 3.5 percentage points. Data was statistically adjusted by age, party, region and gender to ensure representativeness. Sampling was conducted via random digit dialing to landline and cell phones weighted to reflect known population patterns. The Siena College Research Institute, directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D., conducts political, economic, social and cultural research primarily in New York State. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.