58^th SD – Erie County – William Stachowski (D, incumbent) vs. Dennis Delano (R)

 In a district where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than two-to-one, Delano holds a 49-36 percent lead over Stachowski.  While Stachowski has the support of only about half of Democrats, Delano gets nearly two-thirds of Republicans and more than two-thirds of independent voters.  Delano leads with men and women, with every age group and religion, and in every region of the district.

 Stachowski is viewed favorably by 39 percent of voters and unfavorably by 14 percent, with 47 percent having no opinion.  Delano has a 63-15 percent favorable rating, with only 23 percent having no opinion.  Delano’s favorable rating is 59 percent with Democrats – significantly higher than Stachowski’s 44 percent – and at least 61 percent in every region of the district.

 Nearly half of voters would like to see the Senate controlled by Democrats, with only 35 percent supporting Republican control.  Obama has a small four-point lead over McCain in the district, 45-41 percent.

 Voters give Delano a significant lead over Stachowski on who they think would be better on virtually every issue:  property taxes, state budget deficit, job creation, government reform, and fighting for Upstate.  Voters give Delano a small lead on health care, and rate the candidates as virtually even on education.

 “The challenger is more well known and better liked than the 27-year incumbent, even among Democrats, in this overwhelmingly Democratic district.  Voters think Delano is better on the issues, and when asked a generic ‘re-elect’ question with no opponent, more voters were inclined to ‘prefer someone else’ than to re-elect Stachowski.  With four weeks to go, the incumbent, trailing by 13 points, faces an uphill climb if he wants to pull a come-from-behind victory,” Greenberg said.

 59^th SD – Erie/Livingston/Ontario/Wyoming – Dale Volker (R, incumbent) vs. Kathy Konst (D)

 Volker has a significant 17-point, 50-33 percent, lead over Konst.  Volker has the support of two-thirds of Republicans, leading 67-25 percent, while Konst only wins among Democrats 51-33 percent.  Volker leads  43-28 percent among independent voters.  Volker has an eight-point lead in the Erie County portion of the district and a commanding 29-point lead in the Livingston/Ontario/Wyoming Counties portion of the district.

 Volker is viewed favorably by 49 percent of voters and unfavorably by 32 percent.  Democrats are nearly evenly divided on Volker.  Konst has a 26-16 percent favorable rating, with 58 percent of voters having no opinion. 

 Voters support keeping Republicans in control of the Senate by a 49-35 percent margin, with independent voters voicing two-to-one support for Republican control.  McCain has a 54-36 percent lead over Obama.

 By double digits, voters think Volker would be better on nearly every issue, with the exception of government reform and education where they give him seven and eight point leads, respectively.

 “A Senator for more than three decades, Volker enters the final four weeks of the campaign in a strong position against a challenger who is unknown to more than half of the voters.  Konst has a lot of ground to close and not a lot of time to do it,” Greenberg said.