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Posted: Wednesday, 06 May 2009 6:35AM

The Economy: Are You Cinching the Belt For Good?




ddebo@entercom.com

Are you ready to spend?  Apparently once the belt is tightened a little bit, a lot of Americans don't start to miss what they don't have.

For example:
  • A recent study by the Pew Research Center shows that we have fewer household appliances on the "can't live without" list.
  • Siena College's monthly consumer confidence poll shows 58.87 percent of upstate residents are optimistic, but spending on gasoline food, and furnishings still lag.
WBEN Online Extra


Exclusive WBEN Audio:

WBEN's Dave Debo reports

On the Liveline With...

Economist Fred Floss, Buffalo State College

Michael McCall, Ithaca College
Consumer Behavior Expert

Other Resources:
Read The Pew Survey
 
Read The Siena Poll


Essentials are being re-defined, and psychologists who study the economy say the cutbacks may linger as we discover living with less isn't so bad.

"It's going to take a while before people start feeling comfortable, because from a psychological standpoint, people have got comfortable with less,"  says Michael  McCall, an Ithaca College  psychologist specializing in consumer behavior.

" It's definitely going to come back, we are going to get back to spending. How long will it take? I think it depends on consumer confidence" Mc Call says.

Siena's consumer confidence index for the entire state has re-entered the 60's range, said Douglas Lonnstrom, founding director of the institute at Siena College, near Albany. But we haven't completely turned the corner

"We still have a long way to go to return to pre-recession confidence levels and spending intent. Buying plans remain down 20 percent to 35 percent from April 2007."

The statewide  62.1 reading was well above the 55 points recorded a year earlier.It was slightly above the nation's April reading of 61.9 reported in a similar national survey done by the University of Michigan.

Buying plans were rising for cars and trucks, computers and homes Home furnishings and remodeling remain down, Lonnstrom says.


AP Photo(AP) Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave his most optimistic prediction yet Tuesday about the end of the recession, saying he expects the economy to start growing again this year - although the comeback could be weak and more jobs will disappear even after a recovery takes hold.

The Fed chief told Congress' Joint Economic Committee that he saw hopeful signs, including firmer home sales, a revival in consumer spending and some improvement in lending conditions for banks, businesses and individual borrowers.

"We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year," Bernanke said.

Previously, Bernanke has suggested the recession could end this year if the government managed to stabilize the financial markets. This time, he said not only that he expects an end to the recession this year end but also a return to growth.

For that to happen, he said, the banking system must continue to stabilize.

"A relapse in financial conditions would be a significant drag on economic activity and could cause the incipient recovery to stall," Bernanke said.

Barring such a setback, Bernanke suggested the worst of the recession - for lost economic activity - has passed. Economists say the recession started in December 2007, then hit with force in the fall of last year when the financial crisis intensified.

He suggested that even in a recovery, economic activity would probably still be below normal, which some economists say is around a 2.5 percent growth, and "only gradually gain momentum."


Tom Bauerle
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